Disasters in Somalia

Drought is Somalia’s dominant disaster risk, while the Juba and Shabelle river corridors face repeated river flooding and flash floods. Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba and Hiran, including Beletweyne, are repeatedly exposed. Cyclones and storm surges matter especially in northern and coastal areas. A local dry period does not rule out a flood wave arriving from upstream. In 2026, drought is increasing water and food insecurity. The October to December Deyr season has a forecast probability above 90 percent for El Niño conditions, with rainfall potentially reaching up to 90 percent above normal in the strongest affected areas. This raises the risk of river and flash floods along the Juba and Shabelle systems while some areas remain water-scarce. The Somalia Disaster Management Agency, known as SoDMA, is the national disaster-management authority established under Law No. 17/2016. The National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center, or NMHEWC, supports warnings, while the National Emergency Operations Centre, or NEOC, serves as a national situation and data centre. Federal ministries, Federal Member State disaster-management authorities, district commissioners and local communities all have roles, but coverage and implementation differ across the country. State bodies may be called DRMA or DRMC depending on the state. Warnings use rainfall forecasts, river-level monitoring, flood modelling and seasonal climate information from systems and partners including SWALIM, FSNAU and ICPAC. Authorities and partners may issue alerts through local radio, SMS and official SoDMA or government channels. The 2026 impact-based forecasting pilot combines triggers, risk levels, maps, bulletins and Somali-language summaries for drought and floods. Connectivity gaps limit access in remote areas. In Beledweyne in 2023, more than 260,000 warnings were reportedly sent and about 90 percent of the population at risk was evacuated; this was a documented local result, not a nationwide guarantee. Preparedness includes checking flood maps and exposure, identifying higher ground and evacuation routes, inspecting embankments and river banks, protecting wells and water points, and storing essential supplies. Drought planning can include water support, livestock protection, seed support, cash assistance and early action triggered by forecast conditions. Government bodies at federal, state and district level need to coordinate these measures before the main seasonal threat; the recommended preparation window can exceed three months. The National Disaster Risk Management Fund regulation adopted in February 2026 provides a financial and administrative framework for prevention, preparedness and response. When an emergency develops, a state DRMA or DRMC can activate standard procedures and an incident command structure, inform SoDMA, assess the situation, set priorities, list local responders and resources, coordinate rescue and connect district operations with the NEOC. SoDMA’s official information lists 449 for National Emergency and 991 for Somali Police. SoDMA also publishes the contact number +252 61 5444 400, but a confirmed nationwide 24-hour emergency-service arrangement and a national fire-fighter number were not established in the available information. Telephone charges and network availability are not uniformly verified. District commissioners are responsible for warning affected communities and directing movement during floods or cyclones toward safer ground or designated relief areas where these exist. Floodwater and unsafe waterways should be avoided. Routes, shelter capacity, security conditions, registration arrangements, protection, water and sanitation, and essential health services vary locally. Somalia has no verified single nationwide evacuation order or registration procedure. Emergency assistance is coordinated through government and partners under the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, or HNRP. Support may include water, food or cash, shelter and household items, water and sanitation services, livestock and agricultural assistance, transport, rescue and restoration of essential services. Access normally depends on an impact and needs assessment rather than a universal statutory entitlement. Displaced people, rural and pastoral households, and households headed by women or caring for children may receive priority, but distance, damaged roads, insecurity, communications and funding affect delivery. Relief-camp support is planned through policy but depends on local capacity and financing. Somalia’s disaster-management policy follows a rights-based approach and assigns responsibilities for warning, coordination, rescue, evacuation and emergency shelter to federal, state and district authorities. Community participation and following credible alerts are expected, but the available information does not verify a national compensation scheme or a general penalty for failing to follow an alert. Recovery extends beyond immediate relief. After the 2023 Deyr floods, more than 2.5 million people were affected, more than 2 million were displaced, 188 deaths were recorded, and reported damage and losses reached US$176 million, with about US$230 million estimated for recovery and reconstruction. Recovery priorities included livelihoods, housing, water and sanitation, bridges, transport and resilient rebuilding. Key protective infrastructure includes embankments, river banks, canals, dams, reservoirs, water catchments, wells, drainage, roads, bridges and communication systems. Poor maintenance and infrastructure gaps increase exposure. National plans set targets such as reducing affected people and damage by 50 percent by 2029, issuing automated warnings 48 hours in advance, establishing a Unified Command Centre in 2026, creating disaster centres in 80 percent of regions and districts by 2028, and developing five specialised response teams by 2027. These are planning targets rather than guarantees of current nationwide coverage.